Right, having started the New Year on the high of a long-awaited publication, it's time to get back to reality.
Which is, and I can't stress this enough, dismal.
I've done goodness-knows how many posts about politics... oh wait, I made a tag for that, so let's count 'em. That's 47 here, which tend to be quite long and (dare I say it) detailed, and a whopping 1,026 over on Decoherency. Which tend to be shorter, more current, and a lot more ranty.
Some topics deserve a fuller treatment though. And the Current State Of The World Right Now is just such a thing. You can't call yourself a blogger and not cover the return of the Orange One. You just can't.
Anyway, as I was saying, I've written a lot about politics, because it is after all a thoroughly interesting subject. After politics, they say, everything is ashes (perhaps that might turn out to be more literally true than the usual interpretation). But more importantly, I've tried, God knows I've tried, to understand why people believe apparently incomprehensible things and support people who say things which are dumber than a bag of particularly dumb rocks, and I realise that... I've failed.
America, Where Art Thou ?
Let me start with the US's apparent determination to shoot itself in the foot and a good many other places besides, what with the US being the isotropic home of gun-toting crazies. To be honest I got lucky. When the election result came through I was away on conferences and there just wasn't time to worry about it. Yet the sheer bizarreness of it all still hasn't sunk in. Kamala Harris had such a blisteringly good start to the campaign, surging in the polls and slipping only slightly later on, that I never really worried much about the outcome. It seemed almost a foregone conclusion.
For the opening credits of Have I Got News For You, they used to have a cartoon of Obama effortlessly getting the basketball in the net. Later they changed it so he missed. |
Which of course it wasn't. The Atlantic has it that Democratic losses weren't truly catastrophic for the party; perhaps there was more an element of not voting at all rather than actively shifting right. This seems very much to have been the strategy of election manipulators in the past, though I've yet to see a detailed statistical analysis of these results.
What gives me a lot of pause for thought on that possibility is the multitude of reports of Trump supporters being incredibly unenthused : falling asleep in or walking out of his rallies en masse (though I don't know of anyone who quite managed to do both and sleepwalked out), polls showing remarkably little energy or support for the campaign. And conversely, Harris seemed to have consistently massive rallies; the "you want the other smaller rally down the street" moment was genuine gold, as was the success of calling the Repubnicans "weird". That painted a very rosy picture of apathy among the MAGA crowd and a determined enthusiasm among the liberals to get out and vote*.
* Note that I'm not saying that the strategy of firing up one's own base by denigrating the opponents is the right approach. I'm just commenting here on the apparent differences between the two sides, with one appearing markedly more successful than the other.
For whatever reason, it didn't turn out like that. I just have two comments on that point. First, I heard from someone (but haven't been able to find the story online) that one pollster won millions of dollars by betting on Trump because he asked people not who they'd vote for, but who their friends would vote for. Apparently that gave a much more decisive result. People might well be too embarrassed to say they themselves would vote for the Oompa Loompa in-chief (psychologically, confessing even in an anonymous poll may still be embarrassing) but less so about admitting what their friends would do. And we know that if you do have many friends who share a belief, you're very likely too as well. So that one works both ways, being both an accurate reflection of what people believed but also because of who was, by their own admission, persuading them.
Secondly, there was one clip – I think it was on John Oliver – contrasting two particular campaign events. The Harris one on this occasion was in a church, very solemn, dignified, serious, and... boring. The Trump event was unhinged, with a crazed Elon Musk jumping like he's on some implausibly potent drugs and Hulk Hogan turning up for who the fuck knows why, probably there were cheerleaders shooting bald eagles with fireworks (or the other way around*) and all the other crazy American stuff as well. I dunno. Unhinged to be sure, but you couldn't possibly call it boring. And it stuck in the back of my mind ever since that the Trump event was, if I may abuse the stereotypes, a lot more American-feeling than the Harris one.
* Or the other other way around. Fireworks shooting bald eagles with cheerleaders.
That may have course been an outlier though. Most of Harris' events looked a lot more lively. But it did worry me, a bit.
Perhaps I was caught in a filter bubble ? It's very possible. Maybe there were more enthusiastic Trump supporters elsewhere, maybe Harris alienated more people than it appeared. Maybe there were selection effects : you don't need much enthusiasm to vote, and of course by definition the existing fanbase are bound to turn up in legions at the rallies. So Harris' huge crowds may not have reflected the wider voting community. Maybe. We similar effects all the time; after all, nobody takes opinion polls on specific issues very seriously because they're generally so unrepresentative.
Regardless, what I think everyone has utterly failed to get a handle on is the most basic issue of all. We can do detailed statistical breakdowns to the nth degree, but this doesn't answer the fundamental problem : why in the hell anyone listening to Trump for more than about 30 seconds doesn't feel an uncontrollable urge to a) punch him very hard indeed in the face and/or b) run screaming down the street, their brain oozing out of their ears in an effort to escape the unbearable nonsense it has to put up with.
That is... I genuinely think that we have some pretty good insights into how persuasion works in groups. That obscenely long linked post is not, mercifully, a complete waste of time. But while we also know a good deal about how persuasion works among individuals, I feel like we're still missing a huge piece of the puzzle. We don't understand the fire-is-hot problem, how people can experience the same evidence and come to strikingly different conclusions that one would naively think equivalent to claiming that fire is cold instead of hot. I'll quote myself :
I don't know how to persuade anyone that fire is hot if they won't believe it when their own hair is actually on fire. Those kind of errors are supposed to be dealt with by the Darwin Awards, not persuasion.
As I've said, I've tried. I keep records of how I've changed my mind. I've tried to self-assess how I make my own political decisions. I've looked at why bullshit is appealing. I've read books about persuasion and rhetoric. I've read numerous threads on social media attempting to explain why liberalism isn't appealing to people and none of it is much help.
I don't say there's no value in any of this, but... when I hear someone saying, "I'm going to be a dictator" and a host of other statements to the same effect, and worse besides, I can't not care about it*. I can't somehow assume this was said purely for dramatic effect or some such nonsense. I immediately assume that the kind of person who would say such things, for any reason whatever, is in no way fit to be near any political office of any kind. Either they're truthful, in which case they want to assume power over me and mine which I don't want them to have, or they're lying and are therefore not to be trusted.
* Along with a legion of other insane remarks, not least on health and foreign policy. America First ? You deplorable selfish bastards. You don't think it matters to say things like Russia should be given a free hand in Europe, eh ? Apparently not, with one BBC article quoting Trump supporters who said it was all about the price of eggs. The selfish fucking cunts.
Trump supporters appear not to care about this. That Trump is demonstrably a liar doesn't bother them one bit. Exposing his lies, important though it is, has absolutely no effect on them at all because that simply doesn't interest them. And I find that absolutely baffling, in the extreme. That's the root of the problem, the bit I think nobody has addressed : how in the holy flying hells are there so many people who think like this ? How can they vote for someone when they know they can't trust him to do what he promises – if, that is, they can even string a coherent message out of his verbal diarrhea at all ?
A small cult of loonies is to be expected. A few nutcases here and there ? Sure, people are people, weirdos gonna weirdo. Whole societies in the past were incomparably worse than voting for degenerate racists. But a huge chunk of a modern industrialised nation ? And again, I'm not talking about the kind of reasoning that involves a robust statistical analysis or deep critical thinking skills. I'm talking about problems almost literally at the level of realising that fire is hot (I'm not using hyperbole here), that if you elect someone who promises to all but eat your babies, then this – FFS – isn't a good idea.
What leads me to absolute and profound exasperation is that this is the kind of thing that even with such fecal disseminations as Fox "News"* and a plethora of social media outlets, you absolute bunch of brain-dead fucktards can't see the most buggeringly obvious thing... even when it's hurtling towards you from behind in a truly worrying fashion with a pronounced bulge and a menacing grin. It doesn't matter what your surroundings are like, you should be able to reason for and by yourself. You should be able to realise that Man Who Want Eat Babies Bad, Woman Who Don't Want Eat Babies Better.
* Though I think the "Fox" should also be in quote marks, because it doesn't relate to foxes either.
There's probably an element of this at work but even this isn't enough for a full explanation. |
And no, people of Quora, I don't buy your explanations that Me No Like Liberals Who Want Take Toys Away. Liberals are not, in the main, constantly telling you that everything you've ever loved is evil, and it takes no effort at all to understand this. Now to be fair, there are some pretty stupid memes around and plenty of activists who do rather insist on this sort of highly toxic, puritanical, holier-than-thou behaviour... but you can just ignore 'em. It's really easy ! A bunch of morons on social media saying mean things is not an excuse for voting for a frickin' would-be dictator, you absolute bunch of effluent, incontinent, impotent man-babies.
Ahem. I did warn you this was going to be a rant.
Anyway, I might be prepared to excuse some of this as due to a particularly perverse version of American exceptionalism, a strain (or stain) perhaps of their peculiar culture : an excessive veneration for material wealth, an obsession with influencers, alpha-bro culture and leadership. But I can't do that, and to see why, I turn back across the pond to my native soil.
Britain, What Are You Even Talking About ?
I watched the UK's general election with triumphant glee. And you know what's changed my mind about the result since then ? Nothing, you feckless bunch of twats. I still believe in the government every bit as much as I did before the election. The Labour government isn't perfect, because "perfect government" is an unrealisable oxymoron, and to their enormous credit they tempered expectations brilliantly on that score (if anything too much so). But it is, nonetheless, doing a bloody good job, though you wouldn't think so from either the media or the polls.
Don't worry, this section of the post will be considerably shorter than the first. The same major themes apply as above, and I already did a short write-up of the main issues here. In brief, the Labour government has done a pretty good job of sorting out the mess the country's in, considering that they've got 14 years of damage to undo and have only been in power for a few months so far. Scandals ? Negligible. The worst we've had is that they claimed some freebies and declared them properly. Now, listen up and listen good :
That's
Not
A
Scandal !
I don't care if it's not a good look given the economy, it's not a scandal. It's unrealistic in the extreme to expect people not to take material advantage when they're allowed to, and if you think you wouldn't do so yourself, you're likely deluded. The real scandal is the endemic Tory corruption that's being ignored because of this absolutely pathetic and pointless non-story.
Incompetence ? Also negligible. Sorry, but means-testing pensioners for money most of them don't need so that it can be given to other, genuinely needy people, that's a good thing. So is making farmers with millions of pounds in assets pay inheritance tax on them, especially when you consider the many exemptions and that they can simply gift it to their descendants ahead of time. If these really are small family farms being affected, then as Private Eye put it, the tax is "essentially voluntary". And we've seen huge progress on reinvesting in the economy, an end to strikes, a commitment to green energy... look, this government is clearly, unarguably, going in the right direction. Of course it isn't bloody there yet you twerps, they're not wizards ! Things take time to have an effect ! Why is this hard to understand ?!??
Say what you will, I feel the AI got the mood of what I was after here pretty well. |
And yet what we've seen from the media is nothing but relentless, grinding negativity. Because the PM had a free suit he's clearly in the pocket of Big Fashion. Because he used the apartment of a Labour Peer – an actual Labour party member for God's sake – he clearly somehow pocketed tends of thousands from this even though no money changed hands because why the fuck would it ? Because the budget didn't immediately cause skyrocketing economic growth the Chancellor is clearly a monstrously incompetent amateur and deserves to be put in the stockade or torn apart by bears or something.
Worse... who's benefitting from this perceived though absolutely phoney incompetence ? Not the Tories, thankfully, who are languishing the doldrums of having elected yet another bloody loony. No, it's the even stupider bunch of loonies who've had more practise at cultivating insanity : Reform, a.k.a. the Nigel Farage party. Party ? Drunken-unintelligible-old-white-men-slurring-words-in-a-pub, more like.
I just don't get it. You perceive dishonesty and incompetence among Labour, fine. You're an idiot, but fine. But to then say, "I know who'll really get things sorted out, it's Reform" is a truly special kind of stupid. I am aghast.
Part of the exasperation is not knowing what to take seriously any more. Ironically, part of this is due to Rishi Sunak's best speech : that of his departure. This was humble, contrite and respectful well beyond what was needed. It made me feel that the guy probably wasn't that bad, he's just fallen in with a bad crowd. The problem is that all this is so at odds with the rhetoric he used in Parliament that it's impossible to know who's the real Rishi (if there even is one). Is it Parliamentary performer Rishi or is that naught but a façade ?
When statements can be given which are so contradictory, making sense of anything becomes excruciatingly difficult bordering on impossible. The same goes for stated policies, especially across the pond. If the so-called leader can't actually formulate a coherent sentence, how can you ever know if he's doing what he said he would ? Yes, there's an element of theatricality to political performances, but when rhetoric loses meaning to this degree, what's the point of listening to anything ? At the moment accusations from the right are verging on the point of calling Keir Starmer a werewolf or a banana cunningly disguised as a lawyer : it's such abject nonsense as to rot the brain of the viewer.
Where Do We Go From Here ?
Goodness only knows. For the UK the situation is nowhere near a state of despondency; exasperation is all that's warranted at the moment. Polls this early in a government don't mean much. Give the policies time to actually take effect and it may be a very different story a year or so down the line – but only if the government gets its act together on messaging. Clearly, they've been objectively bad at that. As things stand Labour have a thumping majority and aren't afraid of taking unpopular decisions. This is good, because they're going to need to force things through to effect real change.
But they can't rely on a promised upturn forever. One of the big problems with not knowing what to take seriously is just how likely a Reform breakthrough would be. For now the answer is "not very", but if there's a single lesson from this, it's that we have to take the batshit stuff seriously and can't rely on people's common sense. They don't have any.
Which is hugely depressing. That people were willing to keep voting for the Tories and their absolute drivel, their corrupt incoherence and rampant corruption, their hollowing out of the state for their own aggrandisement, for 14 years, but then decide almost instantly that because Labour haven't fixed everything right away and aren't literally saints that they must somehow be just as bad.... well, sod the whole dang bleedin' lot of you. You're not making any sense. It makes me want to physically scream.
Some hope is gleaned from the in-fighting currently afflicting the far right. This is true in America as well, though there things are undeniably in a worse state since the crazies have (for now) won. Success is not final, failure is not fatal, and all that. I take some comfort from Trumps' utter untrustworthiness, who is at least not a raving ideologue like some of his so-called cabinet. Slim pickings indeed.
I'm not sure I can venture much of an explanation for any of this. Best guess : it's a combination of insular communities with self-reinforcing beliefs and a media who are singularly bad at remaining objective. Criticising everyone without giving praise where praise is due just makes everything seem awful the whole time. This is not really how a proper critique is supposed to be done : it's like the news is on permanent "debunking" mode rather than "verification". Couple this with rampant sensationalism and disaster ensues. What's the point of even trying to do the right thing if the whole press are just going to rip you to shreds over the most minor details regardless ? This environment is a hotbed of stupidity. The result, especially in America, is a cult on a grand scale.
There's a nice quote in Amazon's underrated sci-fi drama The Rig :
The truth is not enough ! Not anymore. It hasn't been for a long time. Behind me... behind everything... there is a vast engine of power, dedicated to making sure that the future you want does not happen. That we never learn, never change, never stop. Something this big, even with proof, people have to choose to believe it. The people we're fighting don't give up.
In the show it's a conspiracy. In reality it's nothing of the sort, it's right out in the open. That's the tragedy of the whole thing, that we can see what's going on, that we have the means to tell everyone... and it doesn't work.
I don't know what to do about this. I know lots of people think they do, but I can't get over the fire-is-hot problem. People wanting to watch the world burn is one thing, but when they themselves feel the lick of the flames and do nothing... the old meme is more pertinent than I thought. If the artist would like to suggest a solution, I'm all ears.